Strong Shipment Growth Forecast in USA, MEA and APeC Will Offset The 1% Decline in China in 2025
NEEDHAM, Mass., August 27, 2025 – Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 1.0% year-on-year (YoY) in 2025 to 1.24 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. This represents an improvement from the previous forecast of 0.6%, driven by 3.9% growth in iOS this year. Despite challenges like soft demand and a tough economy, healthy replacement demand will help push growth into 2026, resulting in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5% from 2024 to 2029. The total addressable market (TAM) has increased slightly, as the current exemption by the U.S. government on smartphones shields the market from negative impact from additional tariffs.
“While tariff volatility continues to pose high uncertainty, for now it is just background noise for the majority of smartphone vendors. OEMs must push forward their diversification and production plans to ensure there are enough shipments to fulfill demand which remains healthy in most markets, in select segments,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Strong growth in U.S. and Middle East and Africa (MEA), of 3.6% and 6.5%, as well as 0.8% growth in Asia Pacific excluding China (APeC) in 2025 will help offset the 1% decline in China expected this year. China’s forecast was reduced from previous 3% YoY growth, as the government subsidies phase out and are no longer expected to significantly stimulate demand amidst ongoing economic challenges. With this mixed bag of regional trends, the key to success for OEMs will be identifying where those pockets of opportunities are.”
Although unit growth remains soft at 1% for 2025, the smartphone market is expected to see robust 5% YoY growth in ASP and 6.0% growth in value this year as vendors strategically focus on value growth rather than chasing volume share. OEMs continue to drive investments in new technologies like slimmer designs, GenAI, foldable form factors and camera features to push the boundaries of innovation, generate consumer interest and help justify the ongoing premiumization trend. This is further fueled by heavy promotions and interest free financing programs, which help make premium phones more affordable.
“GenAI continues to be a significant focus for vendors in differentiating themselves as they integrate AI features into their devices to drive shipments,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “IDC forecasts over 370 million GenAI smartphones to be shipped globally in 2025, contributing to 30% share. As the number of use cases expands and consumer education increases, we expect on-device GenAI capabilities to be incorporated into more mid-range devices, making them a standard must-have feature sooner rather than later—boosting GenAI share to over 70% by 2029.”
“The hardware and software advancements in recent foldable launches from leading vendors such as Samsung, Google, Motorola, Honor, and Huawei signal that the foldable category is rapidly maturing and knocking down the barriers that have prevented mainstream adoption,” said Francisco Jeronimo, vice president, Client Devices. “IDC forecasts the foldable market to accelerate to 6% year-over-year growth in 2025 (from 4% in 2024), followed by another 6% in 2026 and 11% in 2027. The stronger performance will be driven by greater demand as the category matures, more models will be launched that address the top two concerns which have historically held consumers back: durability and price. Nevertheless, we expect foldables to remain somewhat niche and continue representing less than 3% of total smartphone shipments by 2029.”
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International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,000 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 100 countries. IDC’s analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is the world’s leading tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on X at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.
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